Towards a Critical Futurism Part 1: Critique (1984)
With this article British futurist Richard Slaughter begins a three-part look at the futures field today and how a re-evaluation of key assumptions could enhance the applicability and impact of futures studies throughout the world. Read more….
Towards a Critical Futurism Part 2: Revising and Refining a Futurist Perspective (1984)
Continuing his assessment of the futures field today the author questions whether accepted notions of science provide models for futurism, examines some underlying ideological issues and discusses ways in which futurists may re-interpret their own needs. Read more…
Towards a Critical Futurism Part 3: An Outline of Critical Futurism (1984)
Having examined the importance of cultural biases and the inherent nature of the processes of value selection and goal-setting the author concludes his consideration of the futures field today. He outlines a ‘central project’ for futures studies and relates this to the work of individual futurists. Read more…
Critical Futures Studies – A Dimension of Curriculum Work (1986)
Educational institutions are already in the futures business. They participate in a much wider enterprise often without knowing it, without reflecting on the processes whereby aspects of past cultures are brought into the present and used as raw materials in the construction of futures. No architect, engineer or business executive could proceed for long on the basis of worn-out designs and purposes. But as sheltered, monopolistic institutions schools are approaching the Twenty-First Century long before they have come to terms with the Twentieth and, moreover, they still retain an unwieldy amount of baggage from earlier times. What I want to emphasise is that the whole business of curriculum development, innovation and change is bedevilled by the continuing immersion of educational institutions in the past – not the past that actually occurred in unrecorded complexity and richness, but the past that survives in reconstructed bits and fragments replete with official myths, simplifications and endless omissions. Continue reading…
Future vision in the nuclear age (1987)
The purpose of this paper is to show that a basis exists for elaborating sustainable and convivial futures. The paper argues that nuclear weapons are rooted in primitive impulses and perceptual limitations that spring from the prehuman past, and that it’s a mistake to approach the nuclear dilemma as if it were merely a technical issue. Real progress lies less with the continued elaboration of technical systems than with human action and human development. Read more…
Probing beneath the surface: Review of a decade’s futures work (1989)
This article looks back over a decade of futures work. It considers the development of critical futures studies, at several key premises and some outcomes in terms of teaching, research and other products. From this perspective aspects of the wider field a briefly discussed. Read more…
Cultural Reconstruction in the Post-Modern World (1989)
The world is a highly structured, interconnected system. It has a number of features, or qualities, which have been obscured by the limitations of scientific/industrial worldviews. Metaphorically speaking, there is evidence of a radical ‘flattening’ and simplification of view which disrupts our attempts to achieve coherence and leads to the familiar litany of global problems: the global problematique. This paper considers five aspects of a non-reductionist paradigm: hierarchicality, participating consciousness, a global systemic view, temporal balance and reflexive awareness. These may be ‘post-modern’ in the most constructive sense – that is, of foreshadowing new cultural and human possibilities. The paper suggests that the most compelling options involve the transformation of human consciousness. This is a true meta goal which would not only permit the resolution of many otherwise insoluble problems but an unprecedented recovery of meaning and significance. Continue reading…
Assessing the QUEST for future knowledge (1990)
This paper discusses the QUEST technique, pioneered by Professor Nanus and Dr. Selwyn Enzer in the early 1980s. Since then, QUEST has been taken up and applied by many people in a number of countries, including Australia and New Zealand. Several versions of the basic approach exist, and the paper explains why this process may well continue. The intention is to provide a critical overview and to comment upon the significance and possible future evolution of this technique in relation to the futures field. It appears to incorporate a shift of perception that may be of fundamental value to the field as a whole. Read more…
Critical Futures Study and Worldview Design (1991)
Much of the early futures literature considered ‘world problems’ and proffered a variety of solutions. But by the late 1980s two important shifts of perception were under way. First, it is increasingly clear that what have been called world problems are actually problems which have been largely created by affluent Western countries and exported to the rest of the world. So it becomes increasingly inadvisable for Western observers sitting safely at home to try to tell others how to solve them. The more challenging task is to put one’s own house in order. That is, to consider what aspects of the Western worldview permitted this assault upon the rest of the world. This deeper concern will take longer to achieve. It hinges on the fact that very many ‘problems’ seem to have no solution at the level upon which they are first experienced or described. Continue reading…
The machine at the heart of the world: Technology, violence and futures in young peoples’ media (1991)
This essay takes a critical look at three themes in young people’s media: technology, violence and futures. Such themes are embedded in texts and images that have been designed, constructed, packaged and broadcast to children and young people via books, comics, film and TV. Yet this is not a work of literary criticism. Its concern is less with the literary qualities of the material than with their wider human and cultural implications. Chief among these is the penetration of technology into the symbolic and actual life-space of people in the 20th Century. So over-arching is this process that it could be regarded as perhaps the greatest fait accompli of all time. It has overwhelmed the settled worlds of tradition and arguably brought the planet to the edge of catastrophe. Growing up in this context is far from easy. Children and young people are vulnerable to the emerging threats to their wellbeing. The ways such threats are represented are therefore worthy of serious enquiry. Part One here… Parts Two and Three here…
Changing images of futures in the 20th century (1991)
The 20th century saw a rise in dystopian images of futures and an apparent decline in imaging capacity. The article considers responses to this ‘imaging dilemma’. They include critique, futures workshops, accessing cultural resources, renegotiating aspects of a worldview and ‘image-ining’ a different historical dynamic. It concludes that there is a substantive basis for informed optimism and empowerment. The keys to each lie in the nature of human responses to what is desired or feared. This is as true today as it was 30 years ago when this article was written. Read more…
International overview of Futures Education (1992)
Futures education is a direct and creative response to change and uncertainty. It incorporates a recognition that there are problems, dangers and choices ahead which have few historical precedents.
This paper begins by considering the substantive character of futures study because it provides a sound foundation, that is often overlooked. It continues with a brief account of the origins of futures in education. A summary of rationales is provided, followed by a synoptic overview of different types of futures education. It includes an outline of futures concepts and methods. An attempt is made to distinguish some of the underlying purposes of future-oriented education and its present global distribution. The highly significant but latent demand for this work is noted. Finally, reference is made to policy implications and further work needed. Read more…
The promise of the twenty-first century (1992)
The end of one millennium and the prospect of another to follow is not merely symbolic; it provides us with an opportunity to take stock and consider our position. Why are such turning points significant? They reflect powerful aspects of our reality. Among these is the capacity (even the need) of the human mind to range at will over time past, present and future. Another is the fact of our interconnectedness with all things past and future. Read more…
Looking for the real megatrends (1993)
The term ‘Megatrends’ was coined by John Naisbitt in the early 1980s and used to describe a series of changes ostensibly taking place in the USA and elsewhere. It passed into the language and was widely used. Yet the term, and much of what was attempted under its banner, required closer attention. Read more…
Why we should care for future generations now (1994)
This paper argues that caring for future generations is a legitimate ethical concern that arises from our common humanity. The first section explores several reasons why this extension of concern is appropriate and desirable. The second considers a number of strategies for accomplishing this goal. It is argued that caring for future generations now has a number of ‘win-win’ outcomes since it has positive implications for the well-being of present generations as well. Read more…
Cultural reconstruction in the post-modern world (1995)
How can one reconstruct a culture? After all, we have seen the decline of certainty during the present century and the rise of various perspectives that have greatly complicated our view of the world. The idea of cultural reconstruction can all too easily suggest a kind of hubris that is unjustified in post-modern conditions. The construction metaphor itself implies a tangible subject and an assumption of control that may seem inappropriate in this context. So why use it? This is a good time to remind ourselves of the active role of humans in shaping their present and future. If there is a central idea underlying the foresight principle, it is that humans are creators of culture, makers of meaning, conscious agents in the social/historical process. Read more…
Long-term thinking and the politics of reconceptualisation (1996)
This essay is a response to the dominance of short-term thinking in Western culture. It begins with a critique of the minimal, or fleeting, present and then explores some possibilities for extending what might be meant by ‘the present’. It suggests that considerable utility may be derived from a more careful and considered use of particular time frames. It is doubtful if questions of sustainability, the rights of future generations and, indeed, the disciplined study of futures can be resolved without a number of innovations based on long-term thinking. Read more…
This generic paper has stood the test of time. It tackles one of the core questions of FS i.e. how to ensure that ‘futures thinking’ is taken up more widely. It proposes a series of five ‘layers’ or steps that begin with individual capabilities and lead toward a fully installed capacity for social foresight. Read more…
Foresight beyond strategy (1996)
This paper argues that foresight is primarily grounded in human capacities and needs. In many contexts it is being used as a tool for strategic or competitive advantage. Such uses are entirely appropriate when considered from the viewpoints of particular groups. On the other, a more critical and egalitarian type of foresight is needed for cultural innovation beyond the industrial worldview. Webster’s dictionary defines foresight as “an act or power of foreseeing; prescience; an act of looking forward; a view forward, and provident care, or prudence.” These are not qualities that have been adequately developed in late industrial cultures. But they have enormous potential. Foresight is primarily a part of the rich world of understanding and perception enabled by the human brain/mind system. It is a defining condition of human life that actions and decisions (hence, understanding in general) are founded both on what has gone before and on what is expected or intended. The former has received ample attention from psychologists and historians, but until recently the futures dimension did not attract similar attention. It is now clear that futures are at least as central to the human enterprise as the past is commonly assumed to be. Read more…
Why schools should be scanning the future and using futures tools (1996)
This early, two-page article provides a succinct rationale for schools and educational systems to take the emerging future very seriously indeed. Three decades later it remains as true and to-the-point as ever. Read article…
Near-future landscapes as a futures tool (1997)
Near-future landscapes have been widely used as ‘maps’ to the near-term future but have seldom been studied or evaluated. This paper considers a number of late 20th C examples as ‘transitional forms’ that will rapidly evolve with wider application of imaging processes and further developments in technologies of graphic representation. Read more…
Futures beyond dystopia (1998)
The speculative imagination is a higher-order human capacity that can productively explore the not-here and the not-yet. To some extent it is already doing so. But these explorations are limited by prevailing cultural assumptions. The purpose of this paper is to suggest that there are other arenas to explore that, if they were taken seriously, could exert sufficient ‘pull’ to qualify as desirable images of futures. They could then begin to act as ‘magnets’ for the realisation of possibilities that are currently obscured. This paper provided inspiration for the later book of the same name published by Routledge, London, in 2004. Read more…
The Role of Futures Studies in Reducing Global Risk (1998)
The paper begins by defining the ‘civilisational challenge’, ie, the futures that will occur if present trends continue. A diagnosis of our historical predicament is offered. The paper continues by outlining what Futures Studies (FS) provides. This includes: a disciplinary foundation or FS knowledge base (eg. concepts, methods, tools etc); the capacity to construct forward views; and specific contributions to reducing global risk. A high-quality forward view is one that facilitates a ‘structural overview’ of the near-term future over the next 20 or so years. Such a view generates ‘signals’ or ‘messages’ for the present which permit the exercise of applied foresight. Foresight has many functions, including a protective awareness of future contingencies. During unstable times it has become a social necessity. Continue reading….
Creating and sustaining second-generation institutions of foresight (1999)
Institutions of Foresight (IOFs) are purpose-built organisations that focus on one or another aspect of futures work. Depending on definitions there may be dozens or hundreds around the world at any one time. Some of them are fully viable, while others no longer exist. The paper suggests that both successes and failures provide useful pointers for creating and sustaining second-generation IOFs. In particular, the paper considers some implications of the Australian Commission for the Future (CFF). It looks back at the 12 years of its existence, attempts to summarise its achievements. I then suggests a few broad design principles, that may be useful to other such initiatives around the world. Read more…
A new framework for environmental scanning, Foresight (1999)
This paper suggested that environmental scanning (ES) had been largely restricted to parts of the external world and overlooked the human and cultural interiors. In fact, inner/outer distinctions had been widely overlooked within Futures Studies (FS), as in many other fields of enquiry and action. Hence much well-intentioned, and otherwise disciplined work, took place in a cramped empiricist frame which, for good reason, was dubbed ‘flatland’. A broader scanning frame was needed if ES was to better comprehend a richer and more complex reality. The paper sought to provide an early step toward achieving that goal. Read more..
The late 1990’s were imbued with a sense of things falling apart, of a radical loss of certainty and vision. Young people, growing up and maturing when many of the old certainties have broken down, have inherited difficulties from the industrial era, that have few or no historical equivalents. In this context, it is easy to feel cynical, depressed or fearful. Moreover, avoidance strategies are commonly available through a range of increasingly compelling media. Yet young people continue to be fearful about the future. These fears and concerns should be respected. There are, however, many strategies that can help create more positive, creative and empowering responses. Read more…
Professional standards in futures work (1999)
At the time of writing the question of professional standards in the futures arena was a major, but unresolved issue. The paper began with aspects of a rationale. It then sought to briefly define Futures Studies (FS) and to answer two questions: what is a futurist and, how can one become a futurist? It canvassed various proposals for establishing standards including Bell’s for a code of ethics. Questions about professional capabilities and behaviour were posed and some provisional answers given. The paper concluded that for FS to fulfil its potential it must pursue quality in every area. Read more..
A personal agenda for the 21st Century (2000)
The 21st century looks as though it will be a ‘make’ or ‘break’ time for humanity and present trends do not encourage optimism. There are, however, many ways in which humans can act to develop foresight and to ‘steer’ toward more consciously chosen futures. This short paper considers ‘inner’ and ‘outer’ threats to humanity and to an emerging ‘congruence of insight’ about how we might respond. There is vast unmet need for many more voices to enter this ‘futures conversation’. Read more…