A personal agenda for the 21st century (2000)

The 21st century looks as though it will be a ‘make’ or ‘break’ time for humanity. Present trends do not encourage optimism. But there are many ways that humans can act to develop foresight and to ‘steer’ toward more consciously chosen futures. The paper considers ‘inner’ and ‘outer’ threats to humanity and to an emerging ‘congruence of insight’ about how we might respond. There is a need for many more voices to enter this ‘futures conversation’. Read more…

From future shock to social foresight: Recontextualising cyberculture (2001)

The notion of ‘future shock’ attracted widespread attention in the early 1970s but never became intellectually respectable. What it did do was to help express widely felt concerns about the nature of ‘changing times.’ Cyberculture was a later development that explored some aspects of highly technologised near future worlds. The essay begins with a critical overview of the future shock thesis and situates this within the mindset of American futurism in the 1970s. It regards Toffler’s work as a useful source of ideas that contributed toward the development of futures studies as a substantive field of inquiry. The essay then considers how the latter evolved into an intellectually robust and pragmatically useful field of inquiry and action before looking briefly at the interconnections between futures studies, cyberculture and what might be called the ‘real’ future. Read more…

Beyond the mundane: reconciling breadth and depth in futures work (2002, 2004)

For some time there’s been a need within Futures Studies (FS) to develop methods that go beyond the dominant empirical tradition. It has become progressively clearer that our ability to understand the world ‘out there’ crucially depends on an underlying world of reference ‘in here.’ Understanding the near-future environment calls for a combination of views which, for example, give as much credence to judgement as to calculation. The paper considers a way of integrating these very different ‘ways of knowing.’ Read more..

From forecasting and scenarios to social construction: changing methodological paradigms in FS (2002)

This paper looks at shifts that have occurred in underlying methodological paradigms in Futures Studies (FS) over the last several decades. It suggests a progression from forecasting to scenarios to social construction and seeks to account for the rise of the latter. Read more…

Futures studies as an intellectual and applied discipline (2002)

Nearly a quarter of a century ago the CIBA foundation published a book called The Future as an Academic Discipline.  I remember approaching the book with eager anticipation, then recoiling in disappointment at the turgid prose, the lacklustre analysis. If, at that time, the title had been posed as a question, then my answer would have been ‘no’. But nearly 25 years later the answer became a definite ‘yes’: Futures Studies (FS) has ‘come of age’ during this time. Read more…

Why your organisation’s view of the future is wrong (2002)

Have you ever wondered why organisations usually ‘get the future wrong’; why the term ‘futures’ became synonymous with financial derivatives and why your company or organisation has little or no in-house foresight expertise? Many of the current methods for introducing futures techniques and thinking into organisations do not work, or do not work very well. A bit of trend analysis is done here. A few scenarios are turned out there. Maybe a few new ideas are introduced to the management team. But not much else. Typically the consultant futurist appears, carries out his/her work and disappears leaving little of substance behind…Read more…

Road testing a new model at the Australian Foresight Institute (2004)

This paper reports on the development of a new program of post-graduate studies in strategic foresight. It briefly describes how the program began and some of the ways it attempted to learn from other initiatives in order to develop a ‘second generation’ approach. A number of distinguishing features are briefly outlined, along with some of the early results. These include publications, research and work in the area of ‘methodological renewal’. Finally, an attempt is made to summarise lessons learned’ that can be applied more widely. Read more…

Waking up after the war (2005)

The essay begins with a brief analysis of the global problematique. Next, it concentrates on some of the ways that Futurists can respond and, indeed, are responding. This corresponds to what some have called the ‘resolutique’, or arena of possible solutions. A perspective is outlined that takes the discussion beyond earlier work initiated by the Club of Rome. The third section takes up the theme of what ‘waking up’ at the cultural level may mean. Finally, the paper considers some examples of ‘post conventional’ futures work. Read more…

World Futures Studies Federation: Histories and Futures (2005)

A look back at the origins of the WFSF show that, in contrast with its larger US cousin, the WFS, the WFSF was created by people who dissented from the emerging status quo in the world and who wished to ‘open up’ the domain to cultural pluralism. In his account of the first fifteen years Bart van Steenbergen quotes Robert Jungk on the emergence of new futures techniques. He said that: these powerful tools should not be restricted to a technocratic elite, for the future belongs to all of us and for that reason it is absolutely essential that future research is internationalised and democratised as soon as possible.

Steenbergen added that ‘there was full agreement that it should be a genuine international organisation and not one dominated by the Western world.’ He also writes of the many debates and conflicts that took place but also identifies two other features of the organisation. It ‘played a major role as a breeding ground for future futurists’ and it attempted to maintain a suitable ‘distance from the powers that be.’ Thus, from the beginning the WFSF aspired to be a true world federation. Read more…

The Transformative Cycle (T-cycle) (2006)

 

Is America the ‘land of the future’? (2008)

America as the ‘land of the future’ is a persistent myth indissolubly linked with its distinctive culture and pattern of development, its wealth, power and technological prowess. While the nation was founded on dreams of liberty and freedom (notions that were at variance even then with the oppression of native peoples and slavery), those dreams have continued to fade. The founding myths are at odds with present reality for one key reason – the American empire embodies a form of ‘development’ that cannot be sustained, even by the rich. Read more…

Is American the ‘land of the future’? A Response (2008)

Conventional upbeat views the US were looking increasingly problematic. They seemed emblematic of a future that resembled an entropic trap with no easy exits. A trap, moreover, largely of its own making. Why was this? Why were responses so muted and what were the implications of the growing gap between perception and underlying realities? The purpose of this follow-up article was to respond to five other ‘opinion pieces’ published with the original essay in the previous issue. Read more…

Asleep at the wheel: The World Future Society at Forty (2008)

 

What does the WFSF offer? (2008)

Since I relinquished the WFSF Presidency I’ve deliberately taken a ‘back seat’ as it were, stepped out of the on-line dialogue for a while and taken stock of ‘where we are’ as an organisation and a field. What I believe I see in the Futures field has implications for the WFSF. In some ways the former reflects the wider world with its conflicts, divisions and embedded social, cultural and economic distinctions. Open here…

Beyond the threshold. Using climate change literature to support climate change response (2009)

Global civilization is currently at a threshold that has been described as a contrast between “breakthrough” and “breakdown”. This article employs aspects of an integral approach to consider a sample of recent, leading-edge work on climate change. It has two key purposes. First, to explore and honour what each offers and how each contributes to a larger picture.  Second, to strengthen a range of climate change responses. Read more…

Evaluating ‘overshoot and collapse’ futures (2010)

Biggest Wake Up Call – Visual Commentary (2010, 2021)

This section was originally placed on my weblog as an introduction to Part One of my 2010 book The Biggest Wake Up Call in History which is still available as a PDF and ePub. The summary contains an image gallery, related resources and relevant links. This version has been lightly re-edited and updated. Read more…