Recent Work

Is Collapse Inevitable? (2024)

By now even the sceptics, deniers and fossil fuel companies know that some form of global collapse is quite possibly just around the corner. A report from the Global Systems Institute in late 2023 confirmed the now undeniable fact that several major tipping points in the global system were about to be crossed. Or, to put it another way: humanity was already well beyond what has been described as its ‘safe operating space.’ Yep. Time’s up folks. We’re all about to discover that homo sapiens is not at all the master of this small planet, if it ever was. But hang on there. If this is factually correct, why bother to put one’s time and energy into futures-related work? Continue reading…

Contesting Technoscience for Human Futures (2023)

One of the complaints heard frequently these days is that ‘things are moving too fast.’ In almost any domain and you are likely to be confronted by a long list of changes that have surprised people, overturned traditional practices and seem to be producing one ‘revolution’ after another. Multiple innovations in so many areas has created an increasingly challenging environment hat some have termed a VUCA world (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity). It’s long been understood, however, that people do tend to resent having ‘change’ thrust upon them. It’s hardly surprising that they, and the organisations around them, struggle with a never-ending torrent of uncertainty and change. What to do? Continue reading…

The Playbook of Careless, Non-Legal Innovation (2023)

This podcast follows on from two others from 2021 and a series of articles on Re-Assessing the IT Revolution originally published in Futures, later up-dated and revised in the Open Access text Deleting Dystopia. It draws on recent work into some of the core fallacies of techno science. These include the assumption that technology is neutral and that the further development of powerful, high-tech innovations can, on balance, be considered supportive of the human project. Two books that have contributed to this analysis are Robert Hassan’s Analog, and Richard King’s Here Be Monsters (reviewed elsewhere). FuturePod 171 can be found here.

The Man Who Drew Tomorrow (2023)

After the carnage and destruction of World War II the 1950s were a period of recovery and reconstruction for all those blighted by the conflict, which included those from South Coast cities, such as Portsmouth, U.K., where my generation grew up in the shadow of war.Our parents had lived right through it since the Naval Dockyard was a prime military target. They carried the memories of terror and privation: narrow escapes, bomb shelters, explosions, and chaos. For kids, the conflict appeared in the form of ration books and bombsites — echoes of something terrible beyond our experience. As such it was a plain, unadorned life. Church on Sunday, occasional outings but, overall, greyish, local, limited. I was about 10 years old when something from another world fell into my hands — a brightly illustrated comic called The Eagle. I had no idea where it came from, how it was made, by whom or why. All I knew is that week by week it fed my imagination and transported me elsewhere. Read more…

Dark Winter: An Insider’s Guide to Pandemics and Biosecurity (2023)

Pandemics have occurred throughout history causing enormous suffering and the loss of uncountable human lives. Possibly the best-known pandemic is the “Black Death,” which swept across Europe in Medieval times (1347-1351) closely followed by what has been called The Spanish Flu (February 1918 – April 1920), which also carried away many otherwise healthy young adults in the early 20th Century. Two of many reasons for the recurrence of such destructive outbreaks are poverty and ignorance. They are, however, a constant since they emerge quite regularly. The poor, as ever, remain the most vulnerable and likely to suffer, but ignorance can be moderated by access to knowledge.

Dark Winter is the story of one woman’s journey through these very issues and concerns. It also is a kind of restrained manifesto that makes a case for using appropriate methods to understand and respond to dynamic changes in the biosphere, particularly in relation to viruses and other pathogens. Open here…

Lighting Future Days: The Swinburne Foresight Program (2023)

The Swinburne Foresight Program(SFP) was established at the Swinburne University of Technology (SUT), Melbourne during mid-1999 and ran for a period of 17 years. During that time it attracted successive cohorts initially comprised of ‘mid-career professionals,’ broke new conceptual and methdological ground and achieved international recognition. The ‘spark’ at the outset came from a member of Swinburne’s International Advisory Board who asked if the university had ever considered ‘doing anything about Futures Studies’….Read more..

 

 

 

HG Wells, the World Brain and the Human Future (2022)

by George Charles Beresford, black and white glossy print, 1920

Herbert George Wells is mainly remembered as a writer of speculative fiction, although during his lifetime he was perhaps more widely known as a social critic. His fiction and non-fiction, however, both expressed aspects of a strongly held progressive global vision. He had a pervasive sense that humanity was on the cusp of a ‘new era.’ Yet he was equally aware than if it was to turn out well it was becoming urgent to address what he called ‘the world problem.’ By which he meant the growing number of interlocking problems that were becoming ever clearer and more concerning. He realised that solutions had to be conceived in a coherent and organised way. Yet he was constantly frustrated by what he regarded as the inadequacy of decision making within contemporary social and economic structures. He believed that politicians, diplomats, social administrators and, indeed, universities all fell short of what was required. In fact, he summarily dismissed the latter as being ‘scarcely out of the fifteenth century.’ Yet rather than being merely frustrated, he devoted a great deal of time and effort to exploring what he believed were useful responses. Read more…

Future Making Against the Odds (2022)

What is it about a work that determines over time whether it’s seen as a ‘classic’ or fades quietly out of view? Is it the number of people who read it? Is the respect in which it is held by informed collective opinion? Does its wider value rise and fall over time? These are straightforward questions, but they don’t have easy answers. The Limits to Growth (LtG) is a case in point. Published in 1972 it was immediately attacked by mainstream critics and largely ignored thereafter. Yet as time passed this widespread rejection has itself come into question as others have found new and productive uses for the perspective it sought to establish. Read more…

 

 

Deep Time and Futures (2022)

As futurists our task is to look forward. We know that the past informs the present but when you think about it, our default views of the past are quite cursory. If, however, our work relies overwhelmingly on contemporary data (‘megatrends’, driving forces and related signals of change) what might we be missing? I’ve recently taken something of a ‘deep dive’ into the Earth’s distant past and been reminded that, while humans are, from an evolutionary viewpoint, relatively recent newcomers, previous generations have been changing the planet for thousands of years. Prior to this we are looking at millions of years for the evolution of life itself. How aware are we of these upheavals and the trajectories that ensued? And do we fully appreciate characteristics within our own species’ makeup that have, so to speak, been ‘baked in’ over long periods of time? Moving closer to the present, do we recognise the ‘progress traps’ that have occurred throughout history and are still happening? Overall, it’s worth looking a bit more carefully at the past through a deep time lens. Read more…

Futures Enquiry as a Collective journey (2022)

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’ve always viewed my career as a collective journey informed by experience, significant people and, more profoundly, the ‘great conversation’ of books. When asked about influences on my thinking as a futurist I reflect how each of these have played a role. If the focus is specifically on books, I’ve been inspired by many, and over the years, have authored a few myself. Here, the focus is even more specific as I’ve narrowed a huge list of works down to just 15. Continue reading…

Stumbling towards the light: four decades of a life in futures (2021)

The Virtual Curated Special Issue (VCSI) for which this paper was produced was several years in the making. Its origins lie in conversations held during a World Futures Studies Federation in Norway during mid-2017. Initially it was intended to be guest edited but this proved too difficult for busy people. Thus, in late 2019 Ted Fuller, the editor of Futures, very kindly took on this task. Some 20 people were invited to contribute, of which 13 produced publishable work. Six key topics covering different aspects of my work were defined. A selection of earlier publications from each topic was provided to authors addressing that topic and are also made newly available via this issue. Some people chose to address the given themes and related material while others used them as a springboard to pursue other matters in the light of their own work, experience and views. Overall, the collection provides a collective and reliable overview of some of the central themes and concerns of my career over this time. (Please note that other papers from this project can be found on the About page on this site.) Read more…

Two New Futurepod Episodes (2021)

I’ve been wondering why so-called ‘advanced’ societies find it so difficult to change course in order to avoid disastrous futures. Here’s a sample of the ‘skewed narratives’ that seem, thus far, to have prevented us from making the necessary changes. Hear the interview with Peter Hayward: https://www.futurepod.org/podcast/ep-113

Richard outlines some of the ways that the IT revolution has fallen far short of what we have a right to expect. The critique quickly leads to a review of possible solutions and ways forward as discussed in his recently-published Open Access book Deleting Dystopia: Re-asserting human priorities in the Age of Surveillance Capitalism. Hear the interview with Peter Hayward: https://www.futurepod.org/podcast/ep-116

Farewell Alternative Futures? (2020)

The notion of ‘alternative futures’ played a dominant role in the early development of futures studies and applied foresight (FSAF). But the optimism it once signified, the sense of unqualified agency, no longer rings true – or at least not as convincingly. The paper explores some of the grounds of this shift and considers a few of the implications. limitations of space dictate that the paper concentrates on four of many possible factors, each of which arguably contribute to the shift outlined above.

  • Global system change and the rise of the Anthropocene.
  • The rise of denialism and ‘unreality industries’ in inhibiting more constructive responses.
  • The role of forgotten, hidden or repressed aspects of the long ‘human story.’
  • Qualitative development and further evolution of methods within FSAF.

The paper is intended as a ‘positive provocation’ to a vital and continuing debate about purposes and directions for FS as we confront new dimensions of uncertainty and hazard. Particular attention to the final point above is strongly recommended. Read more…

Integral Futures: Theory, Vision, Practice (2020)

This paper provides an overview of Integral Futures (IF) and outlines aspects of its evolution over the last twenty or so years. In so doing it also outlines some of the various uses and applications that have evolved over this time. At the outset it’s helpful to note that the way people respond to Integral Futures—or more correctly integrally informed approaches to futures—depends very much upon where they’re coming from. That is, what they value, what they perceive, and how they create and manage their own unique interior worlds. Most people get the point of the generic four-quadrant model and readily add it to their existing toolkit. Many also find the developmental perspectives within each quadrant illuminating. A closer and more sustained engagement can also reveal an underlying spirit of generousity embedded within the inclusive character of these four “windows on reality.” This is due to the fact that, unlike methods that foreground individual capability and insight, the four quadrants honour and integrate the efforts of many workers and scholars from different cultures and traditions, most of whom would otherwise be overlooked. Read more…

Confronting a High-Tech Nightmare. The Age of Surveillance Capitalism (2020)

During recent decades the ‘myth of progress’ lost credibility and it’s not hard to see why. Many expectations of human improvement that were supposed to flow from new knowledge, advances in human organisation and successive waves of technical innovation have proved hollow or ambiguous at best. That’s not to say that there have been no such improvements. Yet taking these as evidence of overall human improvement requires a kind of mental gymnastics undertaken only by the courageous or the uninformed. Politicians are prominent among those who seem wedded to the latter. What cannot be overlooked for much longer is the way that humanity has manoeuvred itself into a fateful collision with the planetary systems upon which it depends entirely for sustenance and renewal. One need not dig very far into the current sense of frustration and malaise afflicting political systems to acknowledge that there can only be one ‘winner’ in humanity’s self-chosen ‘collision course’ with the planet. It’s not us (Higgs, 2014). Read more…

Futures Studies as a Quest for Meaning (2019)

This paper reflects on four decades of activity in the futures arena. Overall, it tracks a process of deepening insight and growing appreciation for the richness and complexity of life in all its myriad forms. Coupled with this is what I have come to regard as our inescapable responsibility for being active in ways that protect and nurture our natural and cultural heritage, both of which are under sustained and ever deepening threat. To do so we need to recover a clear perception of how extreme and ‘abnormal’ our present situation vis-à-vis Planet Earth really is. This entails removing the veils from our eyes, setting aside convenient fictions and gaining the courage to face reality. This view can also be framed as ‘finding ways forward in impossible times.’ It is a kind of ‘sub-text’ for the kind of Futures Studies I have pursued. Part one provides an overview of early influences and experiences. Part two summarises some core learnings. Part three provides examples of the kinds of ‘depth appreciation’ that I believe prefigure long-term solutions to the global emergency. Read more…

Image: Peter Bruegel’s The Netherlandish Proverbs, 1559 (Gemaldergalerie, Berlin)

Reassessing the IT Revolution Part 1: Literature Review and Key Issues (2018)

A growing volume of reports in mainstream media makes it clear that the IT revolution is bringing with it a series of challenges that societies are ill prepared to face. While surprisingly large numbers of people unthinkingly renounce such of their privacy as remains for trifles, the idealistic hopes of early pioneers and freedom-loving ‘netizens’ remain largely unfulfilled. Benign notions such as ‘cyber democracy’ and the ‘information superhighway’ have all but disappeared. In place of these optimistic hopes and projections there’s a growing sense of uncertainty, disillusion and, in some cases, fear. One reason is that for many the digital realm is an elusive and obscure ‘nowhere place’ whose shadowy operations lie beyond the boundaries of human perception. Another is that a few vast corporations, and those with privileged access to their services, appear to have almost unlimited influence both for good and for ill. What is striking, however, is that in order to capture attention and encourage wide immediate usage it’s the presumed utility of emerging technologies that’s highlighted rather than the radical ambiguity that attends their longer-term use. The implications of this gulf or fracture need to be more thoroughly understood if positive measures to reduce or eliminate them are to be undertaken. Read more…

Reassessing the IT Revolution Part 2: Case Studies and Implications (2018)

This second article focuses on two specific case studies – the Internet of Things (IoT) and the rise of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs). The former is already being portrayed as a kind of unquestioned default assumption. The latter are being widely promoted to replace standard vehicles driven directly by humans on conventional roads. The article then outlines salient features of the two most dominant Internet giants, Facebook and Google, with two goals in mind. First, to identify ways to improve our understanding their interior human and cultural aspects and second, to use the insights gained to explore what should be done and by whom – an issue addressed in the third and final paper. Taken together this and the previous paper help define a draft agenda that can be critiqued, modified and put to wider use. The overarching goal is not merely to help moderate the present impacts of IT but to evolve strategies that better serve more constructive, humanly valuable ends. Read more…

Reassessing the IT Revolution Part 3: Framing Solutions (2018)

The first section picks up the central theme of the series by focusing on ill-considered or compulsive innovation. It questions fatalistic attitudes and argues that, far from being inevitable, concerns such as artificial intelligence (AI) or Chinese surveillance practices need to be brought more fully into the open and subjected to more sustained critical enquiry. The rest of the paper takes up the theme of recovery and renewal. Some critical ‘blind spots’ are briefly outlined (a distinct lack of interest in global challenges; a pervasive tendency to under-value ‘the social’) and reframed in more positive terms. The notion of ‘constitutive human interests’ is raised. It’s here that the implications of the project become ever more obvious since many of the concerns raised can be viewed as positive opportunities for productive innovation and adaptive change. A variety of innovations for better managing IT-related innovations and re-purposing the Internet are subsequently discussed. The overall conclusions of the paper, and indeed, of the whole project, are framed by a growing imperative to ‘disrupt the disruptors’ by investing in socially democratic actions and processes across the board. Finally, a new look at values and moral development arguably has significant implications for the issues discussed throughout. Read more…

The IT Revolution Part 4: Decoding the Matrix (2022)

This final paper draws on newly emerging insights to extend the scope of the critique and provide further support for possible solutions. It begins with a view of the ‘fractured present’ and continues with four contrasting accounts by individuals who have, in quite specific ways, acted as ‘witnesses’ to this unprecedented upheaval. The paper also employs a metaphor from The Matrix film trilogy to consider how the real-world matrix of high-tech entities and systems can be better understood, or ‘decoded.’ Overall, it suggests that the clarity of insight now emerging from such sources is a necessary step toward resolving the dilemmas we collectively face. It provides us with grounds for hope, effective action and, perhaps, options that transcend technological metaphors. One thing is clear: the over-reach of high-tech innovation and thoughtless implementation has multiple costs and brings with it quite new dimensions of hazard and risk. In other words, this is a highly unstable system ripe for change. But what kind of change and whose interests will prevail? Read more…

In-Depth Review of Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow (2017)

Yuval Harari, Harvil Secker, London, 2015, 428 pp

When a new work of note is published early reviews appear in quality publications, followed by a longer ‘tail’ of reports elsewhere. Before long many such works fade into obscurity, becoming accessible mainly to students and scholars. In this case an early review favourably compared Homo Deus to the works of Lewis Mumford. Which caught my attention. Four-and-a-half decades ago as young teacher in Bermuda I was perplexed as to why this tiny sub-tropical paradise would allow itself to be transformed into a teeming, stressful mid-ocean metropolis. How could this be explained? Mumford’s panoramic view of human history, his grasp of how we became human in the first place and his rigorous dissection of oppressive power structures that he called ‘megamachines’ provided food for thought and a variety of starting points for enquiry (Mumford, 1971). I wanted to find out for myself if the book lived up to this exacting comparison. So I read a review copy during an intense week before Christmas, leaving the following weeks to mull over implications. The more I worked my way into the text, the more concerned I became…Read more…